Impacts of Climate Change on Offshore Wind Power Density in Brazil Under Different Warming Scenarios

Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change on Brazil’s offshore wind energy potential across the Northeast, Southeast, and South regions using projections from 27 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Wind speeds were extrapolated to 100 m and used to estimate wind power density (WPD) in offshore areas currently under regulatory assessment for wind farm development. The results reveal distinct regional responses to global warming. The Northeast maintains the highest mean WPD but shows a tendency toward reduction under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), associated with the projected weakening of the trade winds. In contrast, the Southeast exhibits a consistent increase in wind potential, particularly under SSP5-8.5, suggesting a potential intensification of the resource under stronger warming conditions. In the South, projections indicate moderate increases accompanied by considerable interannual variability. Overall, mean annual changes remain below 15% across most analyzed areas, although more pronounced seasonal variations occur during specific periods. These findings suggest that global warming may reshape the regional distribution of offshore wind resources in Brazil, with important implications for long-term energy planning and offshore wind development. Graphical Abstract This graphical abstract presents an assessment of how climate change may affect offshore wind potential in Brazil (Northeast, Southeast, and South) using projections from 27 CMIP6 global climate models under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate that the Northeast maintains the highest wind power density values but tends to show reductions under high-emission conditions, while the Southeast exhibits a consistent increase in wind resources and the South shows moderate increases with high interannual variability. Overall, mean annual changes remain below 15%, but they may alter the regional distribution of offshore wind resources and influence long-term energy planning in Brazil.