Using machine learning for discovery in synoptic survey imaging data

Modern time-domain surveys continuously monitor large swaths of the sky to look for astronomical variability. Astrophysical discovery in such data sets is complicated by the fact that detections of real transient and variable sources are highly outnumbered by ‘bogus’ detections caused by imperfect subtractions, atmospheric effects and detector artefacts. In this work, we present a machine-learning (ML) framework for discovery of variability in time-domain imaging surveys. Our ML methods provide probabilistic statements, in near real time, about the degree to which each newly observed source is an astrophysically relevant source of variable brightness. We provide details about each of the analysis steps involved, including compilation of the training and testing sets, construction of descriptive image-based and contextual features, and optimization of the feature subset and model tuning parameters. Using a validation set of nearly 30 000 objects from the Palomar Transient Factory, we demonstrate a missed detection rate of at most 7.7 per cent at our chosen false-positive rate of 1 per cent for an optimized ML classifier of 23 features, selected to avoid feature correlation and overfitting from an initial library of 42 attributes. Importantly, we show that our classification methodology is insensitive to mislabelled training data up to a contamination of nearly 10 per cent, making it easier to compile sufficient training sets for accurate performance in future surveys. This ML framework, if so adopted, should enable the maximization of scientific gain from future synoptic survey and enable fast follow-up decisions on the vast amounts of streaming data produced by such experiments.