'Future Forecast--Changeable and Probably Getting Worse': The UK Government's Early Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change

This article examines the first encounter by branches of the UK government with the possibility of anthropogenic climate change. The historiography of this subject is currently dominated by the events after 1988, the year of both a major speech on environmental issues (including climate change) by Margaret Thatcher, and the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Challenging this view, I show that climate change became the concern of officials and expert advisers, partly because a new desire to map out future trends was in place by the early 1970s. I examine how advice on climate change was offered and challenged, and how politicians responded. It is also interesting as a specific case study of how governments look forward and address changes on a timescale that exceed those typical of politics. Second, it is a case study of the roles of expertise and evidence in government. Experts had to advise on the scientific plausibility of claims about climate change. Third, this is a study of how the highest levels of the UK government first encountered what may well be seen as the defining issue of late industrial society. In it we see the emergence of both believers and sceptics amongst individuals and institutions.