Constraining the Origin of the Nanohertz Gravitational-wave Background by Pulsar Timing Array Observations of Both the Background and Individual Supermassive Binary Black Holes

Abstract The gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive binary black holes (BBHs) have long been sought by pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments, in the forms of both a stochastic GW background (GWB) and individual sources. Evidence for a GWB was reported recently by several PTAs with origins to be determined. Here we use a BBH population synthesis model to investigate the detection probability of individual BBHs by the Chinese PTA (CPTA) and the constraint on the GWB origin that may be obtained by PTA observations of both GWB and individual BBHs. If the detected GWB signal is entirely due to BBHs, a significantly positive redshift evolution (∝ (1 + z ) 2.07 ) of the mass scaling relation between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies is required. In this case, we find that the detection probability of individual BBHs is ∼85% or 64% if using a period of 3.4 yr of CPTA observation data, with an expectation of ∼1.9 or 1.0 BBHs detectable with a signal-to-noise ratio ≥3 or 5, and it is expected to increase to >95% if the observation period is extended to 5 yr or longer. Even if the contribution from BBHs to the GWB power signal is as small as ∼10%, a positive detection of individual BBHs can still be expected within an observation period of ∼10 yr. A nondetection of individual BBHs within several years from now jointly with the detected GWB signal can put a strong constraint on the upper limit of the BBH contribution to the GWB signal and help identify/falsify a cosmological origin.