The stochastic actor-oriented model is a theory as much as it is a method and must be subject to theory tests

Leifeld & Cranmer (2019) compare the stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) theoretically, using simulations, and using an empirical illustration. The main contributions are a set of theoretical differences between the two models and a proposed methodology for model comparison based on out-of-sample prediction. Block et al. do not challenge the theoretical comparison or simulation framework. Yet they argue that network models should not be compared using tie prediction because the inferential goal is to model endogenous network processes, rather than the location of ties. This logical leap from an error in the empirical illustration to discarding the article's main findings and the impossibility of model comparison using dyadic prediction is unsupported by evidence, and it distracts from the main discussion: Does the SAOM contain theory, and how can its inherent theory be tested in any given application? Here, we will refocus the discussion on this central question, which we believe must be urgently addressed.