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July 23, 2026Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics0 citationsOpen Access

Modifications of the BIC for order selection in finite mixture models

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HNHien D. NguyenTNTrungTin Nguyen

Key Points

  • The study aims to improve the consistency of the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for model order selection in finite mixture models under weaker conditions.
  • Introduced the ν-BIC and ε-BIC, modifying BIC penalties with small logarithmic factors.
  • Analyzed theoretical implications for Gaussian, non-differentiable Laplace, heavy-tailed t-mixtures, and regression model mixtures.
  • Provided misspecification results showing optimal order selection under certain conditions.
  • The ν-BIC and ε-BIC were shown to maintain consistency under mild moment assumptions.
  • Proved that if the true model is outside the candidate family, modified IC selects Kullback–Leibler optimal order.
  • Identified conflicts between order consistency and minimax optimality in Hellinger risk.

Abstract

Abstract Finite mixture models are ubiquitous in modern statistical modeling, and a recurring practical issue is choosing the model order. In Keribin (Sankhyā Series A, 62, 49–66, 2000), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was proved consistent in mixtures, but under strong regularity, including high moments and high-order derivatives of the component density. We introduce the ν -BIC and ϵ -BIC, which weight the BIC penalty by negligibly small logarithmic factors immaterial in practice. This minor modification yields consistency under substantially weaker conditions, without differentiability and with mild moment assumptions, and we also give a misspecification result: when the truth lies outside the candidate family, any vanishing-penalty IC eventually selects a Kullback–Leibler optimal order among candidates. Finally, we clarify two limitations of consistent IC-based selection in mixtures: there is no universally minimal BIC-scale penalty within our sufficient conditions, and order consistency can conflict with minimax optimality in Hellinger risk. We illustrate the theory for Gaussian mixtures, non-differentiable Laplace mixtures, heavy-tailed t -mixtures, and mixtures of regression models.

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Cite This Study

Nguyen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a61ae6bfaa9903c51169ac7https://doi.org/10.1007/s10463-026-00999-4
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