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Essay discusses the limitations of modelling in anthropocene studies, advocating for historical methods and analytical pluralism.
In an age concerned with the future trajectory of the human-Earth system, computer modelling has come to dominate anthropocene research. Modelling has been pursued owing to the method’s capacity for synthesis, quantification, and easy integration with policy. This essay defends conventional historical methods as a means of studying the anthropocene. It argues against the growing authority of modelling by drawing on philosopher Patrick Gardiner’s The Nature of Historical Explanation (1952), which defends history against scientism while also finding affinities. Models deal in generalities and cannot grasp how events unfold in specific detail. The author does not reject modelling so much as call for analytical pluralism.
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Thomas Turnbull (2026) studied this question.
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