Evaluates the e₹ for enhancing domestic payments and achieving global independence from SWIFT.
Amid rising geopolitical fragmentation and the systemic vulnerabilities of commercial bank-led settlement networks, this paper evaluates the Reserve Bank of India’s digital rupee (e₹) through a dual mandate. Domestically, it models the e₹ as an interoperable settlement layer beneath the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), quantifying economic efficiency gains from offline capabilities and programmable Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT). Internationally, it models the e₹ as a mechanism for SWIFT-independence, benchmarking India’s participation in multilateral initiatives — including Project Nexus (now an independently funded operational entity per the RBI Bulletin, June 2026) — against wholesale Multi-CBDC architectures. The paper makes three original contributions to the existing CBDC literature. First, it constructs a dormancy-gap analysis showing that 98.5% of registered e₹ wallets are inactive on any given day, benchmarked against UPI’s daily transaction volume at a ratio of 1:850, and demonstrates that this behavioral constraint is the primary risk to the logistic adoption model calibrated to UPI’s penetration trajectory. Second, it presents a corridor-disaggregated remittance cost-compression model — replacing the flat-rate assumptions common in existing CBDC literature — yielding a base-case savings estimate of ₹34,000 crore annually against a ₹41,500 crore ceiling, and explicitly acknowledges RBI’s April 2026 G20-aligned cross-border payment guidelines as a parallel conventional-rail pathway toward the same objective. Third, it integrates the FSR June 2026’s finding that AI-enabled cyberattacks are the most important near-term challenge to India’s digital financial infrastructure, identifying three specific attack surfaces in the offline e₹ asynchronous reconciliation pipeline that the current hardware-governor framework does not address. The macroeconomic modelling is anchored to empirical primary data from the RBI Bulletin, June 2026 (Notes in Circulation: ₹42.5 lakh crore, May 2026) and the RBI Financial Stability Report, June 2026 (GNPA: 1.8%, CRAR: 17.7%, overall BoP: −US$23.6 billion for FY2025-26). The paper is written by a payments practitioner with 19 years of experience across UPI platform development, Payment-as-a-Service architecture, and cross-border ASEAN corridor operations, and has been submitted to the Reserve Bank of India’s Department of Payment and Settlement Systems, FinTech Department, and Department of Economic and Policy Research.
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Atit Kumbhani (2026) studied this question.
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