Synoptic Forecasting of the Oceanic Mixed Layer Using the Navy's Operational Environmental Data Base: Present Capabilities and Future Applications

A synoptic forecast model of the oceanic mixed layer has been developed for operational use at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC), Monterey, Calif. The potential success of this model depends critically on the quality of the Navy's operational environmental data base, which supplies the model with its initial and boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss the model and its applications and investigate the suitability of this data base for operational ocean forecasting through verification results from a 72 h forecast performed in real time for the entire Northern Hemisphere. The model does not exhibit skill in forecasting changes in sea surface temperature in the tropics. This may be due to an inadequate representation of the surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum provided by the operational data base for this region. In extratropical regions, however, the model does show skill in predicting changes in sea surface temperature on the time scale considered.