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The relative age effect (RAE) and its relationships with maturation, anthropometry, and physical performance characteristics were examined across a representative sample of English youth soccer development programmes. Birth dates of 1,212 players, chronologically age-grouped (i.e., U9's-U18's), representing 17 professional clubs (i.e., playing in Leagues 1 Q2 = Dec-Feb; Q3 = Mar-May; Q4 = Jun-Aug). Players were measured for somatic maturation and performed a battery of physical tests to determine aerobic fitness (Multi-Stage Fitness Test MSFT), Maximal Vertical Jump (MVJ), sprint (10 & 20m), and agility (T-Test) performance capabilities. Odds ratio's (OR) revealed Q1 players were 5.3 times (95% confidence intervals CI: 4.08-6.83) more likely to be selected than Q4's, with a particularly strong RAE bias observed in U9 (OR: 5.56) and U13-U16 squads (OR: 5.45-6.13). Multivariate statistical models identified few between quartile differences in anthropometric and fitness characteristics, and confirmed chronological age-group and estimated age at peak height velocity (APHV) as covariates. Assessment of practical significance using magnitude-based inferences demonstrated body size advantages in relatively older players (Q1 vs. Q4) that were very-likely small (Effect Size ES: 0.53-0.57), and likely to very-likely moderate (ES: 0.62-0.72) in U12 and U14 squads, respectively. Relatively older U12-U14 players also demonstrated small advantages in 10m (ES: 0.31-0.45) and 20m sprint performance (ES: 0.36-0.46). The data identify a strong RAE bias at the entry-point to English soccer developmental programmes. RAE was also stronger circa-PHV, and relatively older players demonstrated anaerobic performance advantages during the pubescent period. Talent selectors should consider motor function and maturation status assessments to avoid premature and unwarranted drop-out of soccer players within youth development programmes.
Lovell et al. (2015) studied this question.