Following the Leader? Presidential Influence Over Congress in the Passage of Federal Crime Control Policy

This study explores the relationship between the president, Congress, and the passage of federal crime control legislation in the United States from 1946 to 1996. The theory of presidential influence over Congress is used to predict the impact of presidential activity on congressional passage of public laws related to crime. It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the issue of crime, the more attention Congress will give to the topic, thus helping to ensure the papssage of crime legislation. Using a multivariate time-series analysis of data collected from the Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States and the United States Statutes at Large, the study finds some support for the hypothesis, alongside presidential popularity, the official crime rate, and the political cycle.