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Malaria is a life-threatening disease endemic in many African countries especially Nigeria. A mathematical model is used to study the dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. The model incorporates drug resistance, treatment, and the use of mosquito nets as preventive strategies. By fitting the model to data on the incidence of malaria in Nigeria, important parameters associated with the disease dynamics are estimated. Using these estimated parameters, the basic reproduction number is calculated, future dynamics simulated, and those parameters with a large impact on Nigerian malaria determined. Overall, the results indicate that the disease is likely to remain endemic in Nigeria unless better control measures are focused on the dominant resistant strain, treatment is improved and the use of mosquito nets become widespread.
Collins et al. (Fri,) studied this question.