Testing the Prediction Ability of LEM-Derived Sedimentary Budget in an Upland Catchment of the Southern Apennines, Italy: A Source to Sink Approach

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) represent one of the most promising approaches to evaluate sedimentary budget, although factors such as the high number of parameters or the difficulty evaluating the robustness of the results can represent a limitation in their application in natural landscapes. In this paper, the Caesar–Lisflood LEM has been applied in a small catchment (i.e., about 9 km2) of southern Italy draining an artificial reservoir in order to test its ability to predict sediment flux and erosion rate. Short-term (i.e., about 20 years) estimation of the sediment volumes accumulated in the reservoir has been reconstructed by a bathymetric survey and compared to the results coming from the coeval LEM simulations. Results indicate a good accordance between LEM-based erosion volume estimations and direct sedimentation assessment, thus testifying to the high potential of such models to solve issues of sedimentary budget and short-term landscape modification.