The economics of negative population growth: global to local perspectives

According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024, global population is projected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. However, rapidly declining fertility suggests an earlier peak, possibly one billion lower. Natural decrease is becoming widespread in high – and middle-income countries, driven by sustained sub-replacement fertility and population ageing. Economic consequences include slower productivity growth, labour market adjustments, shifting consumption, fiscal pressures, and intergenerational tensions. Pro-natalist policies show limited impact, while migration offers only partial and politically constrained relief. Technological adaptation – especially automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence – is likely to expand beyond early adopters such as East Asia. Urbanisation remains dominant, though post-COVID counter-urbanisation and digital nomadism generate localised change. Aotearoa New Zealand illustrates these dynamics, shaped by its distinctive geography, population mobility, and high ethnic diversity. Economic perspectives highlight the risks and costs for policy and planning of ignoring predictable demographic change.