Forecasting air temperature and rainfall in Mymensingh, Bangladesh with ARIMA: Implications for aquaculture management

Air temperature and rainfall are crucial for aquaculture as they directly affect water temperature, various water quality parameters, and fish habitat conditions. Patterns of air temperature and rainfall are becoming increasingly complex and affecting the aquaculture sector. Therefore, this study aimed to forecast air temperature and rainfall using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to anticipate future trends to effectively plan and manage aquaculture. Time series data from 2011 to 2022 were obtained from NASA and validated against data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The best fitting models were ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for air temperature and ARIMA (3, 0, 2) for rainfall, based on their lowest Bayesian information criterion and satisfactory root mean square error , mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, and maximum absolute error values. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function plots further supported these models. Forecasts indicated a significant monthly increase in air temperature and a consistent decrease in rainfall, with distinct seasonal patterns. These trends suggest potential challenges for fish breeding and aquaculture production in Mymensingh. This study provides essential insights for researchers, policymakers, academics, fishing entrepreneurs, and will aid in future planning, expansion, and management of fish culture and seed production. The findings emphasize the need for sustainable aquaculture practices in response to changing climatic conditions.