Effects of future climate change on the forests of Madagascar

Abstract Global climate change is continuing to occur at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global weather extremes, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rises, climate change is known to directly impact the life cycles and ecologies of many animals and plants. While climate change is projected to result in substantial geographic range and habitat contractions for many species in future, the effects of climate change on many habitats of conservation concern remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated how future climate change is projected to impact the occurrence and distribution of four major forest types of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot and conservation priority, over the next 60 years. We also compared how climate change effects vary among the four forest types under a “mitigation” climate forecast and under a “business‐as‐usual” trajectory. As expected, our models suggest that future climate change will affect the distribution of the four forest types under both trajectories, and forest occurrence is likely to decrease if mean temperatures, temperature seasonality, and precipitation rates increase as predicted. The exception is that forest gain is predicted to occur in the northwest of Madagascar, resulting in a small increase in transitional forest area under the “business‐as‐usual” climate change trajectory. Our study highlights that unmitigated climate change will have a negative impact on Madagascar's forests during the period up to the year 2080, and climate change therefore needs to be mitigated. Madagascar remains a global conservation priority, and urgent conservation action and protective legislation are required to safeguard the future of its native forest.