Randomized trial reconstructs energy imbalance metrics in climate change, suggesting significant natural variability implications.
Key Points
The study aims to reconstruct top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface variables over the last millennium to understand natural variability in Earth's energy imbalance.
Utilized data assimilation combining proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator.
Extended energy budget record into the pre-industrial period from 850 to 2000 CE.
Validated radiation fields with skill assessment in global mean and tropics.
Identified a significant cooling trend aligned with persistent energy loss during the last millennium.
Noted that ocean heat content anomalies after large volcanic eruptions last for 10–20 years.
Found current energy gain rates are unprecedented compared to the period before 1850.