Vulnerability of socio-ecological systems: Assessing the Mayan octopus (Octopus maya) fishery of the Yucatán Peninsula

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) play a critical role in coastal communities worldwide but are highly vulnerable to multiple sources of environmental and social risks. However, research has traditionally focused on biological assessments and has often neglected broader socio‑ecological system (SES) dynamics that shape fisheries vulnerability. This study assessed the vulnerability of the Mayan octopus ( Octopus maya ) fishery in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, using an SES-based framework that integrates ecological and social drivers of risk. This resource is endemic to the region and supports one of the most important SSF in Mexico in terms of exported production and livelihoods. Ecological vulnerability was quantified by analyzing temporal catch anomalies in relation to environmental variables and extreme meteorological events using a generalized least squares model and the Schoener Index ( D ). Social vulnerability was evaluated through a rapid appraisal that focused on the dependence of fishers in an illustrative fishing community on the resource, risk perceptions, and adaptive strategies. Results showed that the O. maya population is highly exposed and sensitive to changes in irradiance, with hurricanes exerting significant effects on catches. These environmental drivers pose future risks despite the presumed resilience of this resource. Social findings revealed high resource dependence and strong awareness of socio‑environmental stressors. Fishers reported proactive and reactive adaptive strategies primarily aimed at sustaining participation in the fishery. The integrated ecological and social heuristic assessment indicated high overall vulnerability of the O. maya SES. These findings underscore the need for risk‑informed governance approaches that enhance adaptive capacity under changing socio‑environmental conditions.