Assessing the Impact of Innovation-Oriented Urban Policy on Urban Ecological Resilience: Empirical Evidence from 271 Cities in China

Against accelerating urban expansion, climate risks, and green transition, fortifying urban ecological resilience (UER) has become central to global urban sustainability. However, there is as yet no systematic evidence to suggest how the National Innovative City Pilot Policy (NICPP) promotes green technology innovation (GTI) and strengthens UER. To address this gap, this paper builds upon the traditional resistance–adaptability–resilience (RAR) paradigm and its extension, the driving force–resistance–adaptability–resilience (DRAR) framework to formulate a comprehensive driving force–pressure–resistance–adaptability–resilience (DPRAR) assessment system. Moreover, this paper investigates a dataset of 271 cities in China spanning the period from 2006 to 2023. By treating the NICPP as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper integrates an entropy balancing technique into a staggered difference–in–differences (DID) model to identify its effect on UER. The results are outlined below. (1) From 2006 to 2023, UER across Chinese municipalities generally increased, though spatial imbalances persisted. (2) The NICPP enhanced urban UER, with effects characterized by time-lagged and cumulative patterns. (3) Both the quantity and quality structure of urban GTI served as channels through which the NICPP affected UER. (4) The NICPP effects are strongest in the central region, followed by those in the western and eastern regions, as well as in resource-dependent cities and cities with stricter environmental regulation. This research provides novel empirical perspectives linking innovation-driven development, GTI, and UER, with implications for NICPP optimization and UER enhancement in China.