Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Patterns and Their Driving Factors Before Mine Restoration on the Western Margin of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, China (2015–2024)

To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of ecosystem patterns in the mine ecological restoration project area on the western margin of the Junggar Basin, spatial data of ecosystem types from 2015 to 2024 were utilized, and the evolution characteristics and driving factors were analyzed by comprehensively applying the PNTIL model, landscape pattern indices, and the Geodetector. The results indicated: (1) Approximately 70% of the study area was consistently occupied by bareland; a net increase of 163.52 km2 (+61.63%) was recorded for grassland area, while a net decrease of 118.08 km2 (−15.95%) was observed for farmland area. (2) For forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems, the negative transformation rates were all higher than the positive transformation rates, and the highest negative transformation rate was recorded for grassland, at 8.56% (2020–2024). (3) At the landscape level, increases in patch number and patch density were observed; at the class level, fragmentation was increased for bareland and farmland, while grassland patches were found to be more aggregated. (4) Annual mean evapotranspiration (q = 0.746), per capita GDP (q = 0.677), and annual mean temperature (q = 0.518) were identified as the primary driving factors, and the interaction between annual mean evapotranspiration and annual mean precipitation was found to be the strongest interactive driving factor. The findings of this study can be used as a theoretical basis for similar historically abandoned mine ecological restoration project areas in terms of land use planning, ecological restoration practices, and sustainable development.