Analysis of the Drivers of Landscape Fragmentation in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Using XGBoost-SHAP

Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park is a prime example of a “continental island” tropical rainforest and holds significant value for biodiversity conservation. However, human activities have led to frequent changes in land use and increased habitat fragmentation within the park; a precise analysis of the underlying mechanisms is necessary for ecological restoration. Consequently, drawing upon land-use data from 2000 to 2020, this study coupled multi-dimensional fragmentation metrics (CFI, AFI, and SFI) with the XGBoost-SHAP framework to systematically unravel the spatiotemporal dynamics and underlying driving mechanisms of landscape fragmentation in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park. Our findings revealed that the spatial configuration of fragmentation predominantly propagated along river networks and transport corridors, accompanied by a fluctuating ‘decline–rise–decline’ temporal trajectory. Notably, the XGBoost-SHAP attribution highlighted a distinct temporal shift in the dominant drivers: fragmentation was primarily mitigated (negatively driven) by NDVI between 2000 and 2010 but was subsequently exacerbated (positively driven) by GDP growth from 2010 to 2020. The findings of this study provide data support and a scientific basis for ecosystem restoration and land use planning in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.