Climate and management trade-offs shape açaí (Euterpe oleracea) fruit production across natural forests and plantation systems in the Amazon

Forest-based production systems play a critical role in supporting livelihoods and ecosystem services across the Amazon. The açaí palm is a key non-timber forest product managed under contrasting systems, from homogeneous plantations to managed natural floodplain forests. However, the combined effects of climate variability and management intensity on fruit production remain poorly understood. We evaluated fruit production across these contrasting systems by integrating field data with climatic variables, flooding gradients, forest structure, and management indicators. We also validated a non-destructive visual method for estimating infructescence production and applied ecological niche models to contextualize environmental suitability. Fruit production in experimental plantations showed strong seasonality (vector r = 0.66; Z p < 0.001) during the drier season and positive relationships with temperature and solar radiation, while rainfall had negative effect. In managed floodplain forests, increased management intensity significantly enhanced fruit production but reduced tree species richness, revealing a clear trade-off between productivity and diversity. The visual scoring method was strongly correlated with actual infructescence weight (R² = 0.77; p < 0.001), supporting its application as a rapid monitoring tool. Model outputs diverged: MaxEnt showed high predictive performance (AUC = 0.94; TSS = 0.83) and projected an expansion of environmentally suitable areas under climate change, whereas Bioclim performed poorly (AUC = 0.65; TSS = 0.30) and predicted a contraction. These findings demonstrate that fruit production is related by climatic conditions and management intensity, highlighting the importance of model selection when projecting species responses to environmental change and have direct implications for sustainable management in Amazonian systems.