The impact of future climate and land use changes on the distribution and diversity of China’s endemic medicinal plants

Climate and land use change are major drivers of biodiversity loss, yet their combined impacts on endemic medicinal plants remain unclear. Using 1.98 million grid-based distribution records at a resolution of 5 arc-minutes, the potential distribution changes of 2412 China’s endemic medicinal plants were modeled under four climate-land use change scenarios (2050s/2090s, SSP1-2.6/SSP5-8.5) and three dispersal assumptions (full, optimistic limited, and no dispersal). It was projected that 1112–2297 species would lose > 20% of their range, while 366–501 species would expand. Under all scenarios, species migrated toward a broad western corridor from southwest to northwest China, with migration distances increasing under intensified changes. High-diversity regions were concentrated in mountainous areas (Hengduan, Nanling, and Wuyi), whereas low-diversity regions occurred in eastern, northeast and northwest plains. National average species retention rates ranged from 29.40% to 59.87%, and emigration rates ranged from 39.54% to 70.01% across all scenarios. The Hengduan Mountains and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau acted as migration centers, hosting > 200 immigrating species and exhibiting high turnover rates (52.20%–78.16%). These findings provide high-resolution distribution dynamics of China’s endemic medicinal plants, providing a scientific basis for prioritizing conservation areas, designing dynamic conservation networks, and formulating conservation policies.