Green Finance and Human Health Outcomes: The Role of Public Renewable Energy Investment in China, India and Selected Economies

Climate-aligned finance is increasingly expected to yield measurable health co-benefits, yet it remains unclear whether public renewable-energy investment translates into better population health in major emerging economies, particularly after COVID-19. This study examines whether climate-focused public renewable-energy finance (green finance) improves human health outcomes, whether environmental quality acts as a transmission channel, and whether the COVID-19 period altered the strength or direction of these relationships. We compile a balanced annual macro-panel for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico over 2000–2023, drawing on harmonised international sources for public renewable-energy finance, health outcomes, emissions, and macro-structural controls. Baseline models are estimated using country fixed effects with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, complemented by panel-corrected standard errors and Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) for robustness. A two-equation mediation framework tests environmental quality proxied by CO₂ emissions, with indirect effects evaluated using non-parametric bootstrap inference (1,000 replications). Structural change is assessed via sub-sample estimates for 2000–2019 and 2020–2023, alongside country-specific heterogeneity checks. The results show no robust contemporaneous association between green finance and life expectancy, while the association with under-5 mortality is estimator- and regime-dependent, appearing protective pre-COVID but attenuating during 2020–2023. The CO2-based mediation pathway is not statistically supported, consistent with a weak first-stage link between green finance and emissions. Overall, the findings refine theory on finance–environment–health linkages and inform practice by indicating that health co-benefits from energy-transition finance are conditional on complementary structural and health-system investments, which is very important from the perspective of sustainable development.