An evolutionary approach to predict the orientation of CRISPR arrays

CRISPR-Cas is a defense system of bacteria and archaea against phages. Parts of the foreign DNA, called spacers, are incorporated into the CRISPR array which constitutes the immune memory. The orientation of CRISPR arrays is crucial for analyzing and understanding the functionality of CRISPR systems and their targets. Several methods have been developed to identify the orientation of a CRISPR array. To predict the orientation, different methods use different features such as the repeat sequences between the spacers, the location of the leader sequence, the Cas genes, or PAMs. However, those features are often not sufficient to predict the orientation with certainty, or different methods disagree. Remarkably, almost all CRISPR systems have been found to insert spacers in a polarized manner at the leader end of the array. We introduce CRISPR-evOr, a method that leverages the resulting patterns to predict the acquisition orientation for (a group of) CRISPR arrays by reconstructing and comparing the likelihood of their evolutionary history with respect to both possible acquisition orientations. The new method is independent of Cas type, leader existence and location, and transcription orientation. CRISPR-evOr is thus particularly useful for arrays that other CRISPR orientation tools cannot predict confidently and to verify or resolve conflicting predictions from existing tools. CRISPR-evOr currently confidently predicts the orientation of 28.3% of the arrays in the considered subset of CRISPRCasdb, which other tools like CRISPRDirection and CRISPRstrand cannot reliably orient. As our tool leverages evolutionary information we expect this percentage to grow in the future when more closely related arrays will be available. Additionally, CRISPR-evOr provides confident decisions for rare subtypes of CRISPR arrays, where knowledge about repeats and leaders and their orientation is limited.