Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Abstract Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. Using a new global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation, we identify general increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during 1980–2019, culminating in a 0.32–0.42%/year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 0.28 ± 0.10%/year, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 1.53 ± 0.06%/year). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.