The 1986 drought in the southeastern United States: How rare an event was it?

The recent drought in the southeastern United States is the most severe episode of moisture deficiency to strike that area in the past 111 years, based on meteorological records. Using those records, the recurrence interval of this event has been estimated to be of the order of 100–200 years. We develop a much longer history of drought occurrence for this region, using tree‐ring series of old‐age trees growing in the southern Appalachian Mountains. This record, which extends back to 1700, indicates that the 1986 drought was unprecedented in its severity as a single‐year event. On this basis we conclude that the 1986 drought is a very rare event, with a probable recurrence interval of at least 287 years.