Association between Australian rainfall and the Southern Annular Mode

Abstract In this study, we explore the relationships between seasonal Australian rainfall and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We produce two seasonal indices of the SAM: the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI), and an Australian regional version (AOIR) using ERA‐40 mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) reanalysis data. The seasonal rainfall data are based on gridded monthly rainfall provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. For the period 1958–2002 a significant inverse relationship is found between the SAM and rainfall in southern Australia, while a significant in‐phase relationship is found between the SAM and rainfall in northern Australia. Furthermore, widespread significant inverse relationships in southern Australia are only observed in winter, and only with the AOIR. The AOIR accounts for more of the winter rainfall variability in southwest Western Australia, southern South Australia, western and southern Victoria, and western Tasmania than the Southern Oscillation Index. Overall, our results suggest that changes in the SAM may be partly responsible for the current decline in winter rainfall in southern South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania, but not the long‐term decline in southwest Western Australian winter rainfall. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.