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Abstract A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The use of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoniously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electricity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intraweekly. The full model contains other components, including a temperature response, which is also modeled using splines. Key Words: Cubic splinesForecastingKalman filterLoad curveNonlinear regressionSeasonalityStructural time series model
Harvey et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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