Pathways to childlessness in Spain: Exploring the intersection of partnership and employment trajectories

Spain's fertility is among the lowest in the world, due largely to an increasing number of childless women. Childlessness, whether a voluntary choice or not, often results from postponement of childbearing. This delay could be driven partly by the increased instability of partnerships and adverse labour-market conditions. Using data from Spain's Fertility Survey 2018, we use multichannel sequence analysis to identify the most common patterns of partnering and employment trajectories and then assess the likelihood of remaining childless at age 40 for each pattern. Results indicate that pathways deviating from the traditional marital pattern are highly associated with childlessness. When these trajectories are coupled with high attachment to the labour market, the likelihood of remaining childless increases further. These associations are moderated by education. Partnership status is a stronger determinant of childlessness than employment status, especially for highly educated women.