Climate, oceanography, and recruitment: the case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

The Bay of Biscay anchovy has experienced, since 2001, a succession of low recruitments, resulting in the collapse of the stock in 2005; this has led to successive closures of the fishery. This study investigates the possible impact of different controlling factors [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, turbulence, upwelling, and river flow] upon anchovy recruitment and fishery catches. Fifty‐five percent of the recruitment variability of this fishery can be explained by upwelling over the spawning area; this is related, in turn, to the EA pattern. The conceptual understanding of the system proposed for the Bay of Biscay anchovy suggests that negative EA periods are associated with northeasterly wind circulation, which produces weak upwelling over the continental shelf. This pattern results in hydrodynamic stability over the area, leading, probably, to adequate food availability. A positive EA (which extends onwards, from 1998) is associated with southwesterly winds and downwelling over the continental shelf; this leads, probably, to the dispersion of anchovy food and larvae, together with increasing mortality.