Towards a political ecology of Earth System Modelling

Earth system models (ESMs) have been presented as existentially-vital tools for guiding humanity through present and future crises. As part of a special issue, this review paper outlines what a political ecology of Earth System Science (ESS) might look like. We outline some of the political, economic, and ecological structures ESMs depend upon. We trace the disciplinary alternatives that ESS has displaced in its rise to authority, point towards new the state–corporate–military assemblages this authority rests upon, and exemplify the metabolic demands of its hyper scale computational infrastructures, in terms of energy, water, and minerals. In doing so, we argue that between the decommissioning of the Blue Waters (2013–2021) supercomputer and the commissioning of Solstice (2025–2026), a new political ecology of ESS became legible. ESS began to run on digital platforms operated by and for a set of Big Tech companies. Recognising the political and ecological consequences of this new political ecology, we argue ESS must confront its costs.