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July 26, 2026Quaternary Science AdvancesOpen Access

Large uncertainties in early warning of debris flows in southeastern Tibet increased by climate change

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Authors

LHLing HuangNCNingsheng ChenLWLiangshuai Wei

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Overview

Randomized trial evaluates debris flow patterns in southeastern Tibet, indicating need for adaptive warning systems.

Key Points

  • This research aims to assess the reliability of early warning systems for debris flows under changing climatic conditions.
  • Analyzed 214 debris flow sites in Bomi County, southeastern Tibet from 1937-2024.
  • Integrated field surveys, remote sensing data, and meteorological observations.
  • Developed and evaluated an Intensity-Duration threshold model and a Temperature-Rainfall dual-parameter model.
  • Debris flow frequency increased from 21 events (2001-2010) to 150 events (2011-2020).
  • I-D model performance degraded, with false alarm rates rising from 12% to 28% and missed event rates from 8% to 19%.
  • The dual-parameter model outperformed the I-D model (AUC = 0.87 vs. 0.74).

Cite This Study

Huang et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a65a5bad3aea3239cd7782fhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2026.100335
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