Spatial Imbalance Between Flood Disaster Risk and Socioeconomic Development Across Cities in China’s Pearl River Basin

Climate change and rapid urbanization are reshaping the spatial relationship between flood risk and socioeconomic development, yet basin-scale evidence on where risk pressure and development capacity diverge remains limited. Taking 54 cities in China’s Pearl River Basin as the study area, this study adopts a dual-system evaluation framework integrating game-theory weighting, coupling coordination analysis, and spatial autocorrelation. Flood risk is characterized through hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and Resilience, while socioeconomic development is represented by economic scale, urban construction, and population agglomeration. This design extends previous Pearl River Delta-centered analyses to the entire basin and enables city-scale identification of risk–development imbalance. The results reveal a pronounced downstream–upstream gradient. The Pearl River Delta has the highest flood exposure (mean exposure index = 0.2603, 117% higher than the basin average of 0.1208), but strong Resilience and socioeconomic capacity prevent high exposure from translating into the highest overall risk. By contrast, east-central Guangxi emerges as a critical hotspot where moderate to high hazard overlaps with high vulnerability and weak Resilience. Coupling coordination remains generally low, shifting from basic coordination in parts of the Pearl River Delta to severe imbalance in upstream Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan. The global Moran’s I is 0.4261 and significant at the 1% level, indicating marked spatial clustering, with high-high clusters concentrated in core Pearl River Delta cities and low–low clusters in eastern Yunnan and southwestern Guizhou. By distinguishing high exposure cities from high priority intervention areas, this study provides a potentially transferable framework for differentiated flood governance, infrastructure investment, and Resilience enhancement across large river basins.