Sex and the City: Demographics, Spatial Sorting, and the Marriage Market

We study how the interaction between demographic changes and spatial sorting affects marriage matching across space. Using data from China, we first present stylized facts on the diverging spatial distribution of singlehood characterized by a high singles rate for females (males) in more (less) developed cities. We then build a quantitative spatial equilibrium model. It reveals that more highly educated women sort into the service sector in more developed cities than men. With persistent social norms of hypergamy, this results in more failed marriage matches for females (males) in more (less) developed cities, thereby lowering the national marriage rate.