Analysis of the Evolution of Global Agricultural OFDI Network Structure and Its Influencing Factors

Agricultural outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is an important mechanism for strengthening food security, enhancing agricultural capacity, and advancing sustainable development through greater supply-chain resilience and resource-use efficiency. This study applies social network analysis to characterize the global agricultural OFDI network and uses a temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) to examine its drivers. The results show that the network remains sparse but has become more efficiently connected, reciprocal, and clustered, while retaining a pronounced core–periphery structure. Developed economies, led by the United States, occupy the network core, whereas the positions of emerging Asian economies, including China, have strengthened over time. Both endogenous network dependencies and exogenous attributes jointly shape tie formation. The post-2018 estimates indicate weaker network persistence, stronger resource-endowment effects, and greater investment attraction in host economies with less restrictive institutional environments. Across development groups, agricultural capital from high-income economies follows a predominantly unidirectional core–periphery pattern, whereas developing economies exhibit more frequent reciprocal and cyclical investment ties.