Renin and 1-year mortality in critically ill patients with ARDS: trajectories, discrimination, and survival analysis

Figures

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  Figure 1. (A–D) Biomarker trajectories for Renin (A), Lactate (B), CRP (C), and PCT (D) in ICU patients stratified by 1-year survival. Points/lines show model-based means on the original scale obtained from a log-transformed quadratic-time model with patient-level cluster-robust inference; ribbons denote patient-level bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. The y-axis is logarithmic. Annotated p-values refer to timepoint-specific contrasts (non-survivors vs. survivors) at 72 h, 120 h, and 168 h. See Supplementary Table 1 for model coefficients and confidence intervals.

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  Figure 2. LROC—Multivariable logistic model for 1-year mortality. ROC curve for the conventional multivariable logistic regression fitted on complete cases (n = 86, deaths = 38). Candidate predictors were those with univariable p ≤ 0.20; continuous predictors were z-standardized and skewed biomarkers were analyzed on the log(1 + x) scale. The solid curve shows sensitivity vs. 1 − specificity; the dashed diagonal indicates no discrimination. The dot marks the optimal probability threshold by Youden’s index (0.424), yielding sensitivity 0.92 and specificity 0.88. AUC = 0.941. Performance values are apparent (no optimism correction).

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  Figure 3. Kaplan–Meier survival by renin tertiles at (Panel A) T0 (72 h), (Panel B) T1 (120 h), and (Panel C) T2 (168 h) for 1-year mortality. Curves extend to 365 days; two-sided log-rank p-values are reported for high vs. low tertiles on each panel. Renin tertiles were defined separately at each timepoint using data-driven tertiles. The corresponding ranges were: T0 (72 h) low ≤11.3 μU/mL, intermediate 11.6–39.7 μU/mL, high ≥40.2 μU/mL; T1 (120 h) low ≤11.6 μU/mL, intermediate 11.9–45.2 μU/mL, high ≥46.1 μU/mL; and T2 (168 h) low ≤13.7 μU/mL, intermediate 14.2–55.4 μU/mL, high ≥64.9 μU/mL.