Multi‐temporal Mapping of Burned Forest over Canada Using Satellite‐based Change Metrics

A procedure for continental‐scale mapping of burned boreal forest at 10‐day intervals was developed for application to coarse resolution satellite imagery. The basis of the technique is a multiple logistic regression model parameterized using 1998 SPOT‐4 VEGETATION clear‐sky composites and training sites selected across Canada. Predictor features consisted of multi‐temporal change metrics based on reflectance and two vegetation indices, which were normalized to the trajectory of background vegetation to account for phenological variation. Spatial‐contextual tests applied to the logistic model output were developed to remove noise and increase the sensitivity of detection. The procedure was applied over Canada for the 1998‐2000 fire seasons and validated using fire surveys and burned area statistics from forest fire management agencies. The area of falsely mapped burns was found to be small (3.5% commission error over Canada), and most burns larger than 10 km2 were accurately detected and mapped (R2 = 0.90, P<0.005, n = 91 for burns in two provinces). Canada‐wide satellite burned area was similar, but consistently smaller by comparison to statistics compiled by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (by 17% in 1998, 16% in 1999, and 3% in 2000).