MG-TAR: Multi-View Graph Convolutional Networks for Traffic Accident Risk Prediction

Due to the continuing colossal socio-economic losses caused by traffic accidents, it is of prime importance to precisely forecast the traffic accident risk to reduce future accidents. In this paper, we use dangerous driving statistics from driving log data and multi-graph learning to enhance predictive performance. We first conduct geographical and temporal correlation analyses to quantify the relationship between dangerous driving and actual accidents. Then, to learn various dependencies between districts besides the traditional adjacency matrix, we simultaneously model both static and dynamic graphs representing the spatio-temporal contextual relationships with heterogeneous environmental data, including the dangerous driving behavior. A graph is generated for each type of the relationships. Ultimately, we propose an end-to-end framework, called MG-TAR, to effectively learn the association of multiple graphs for accident risk prediction by adopting multi-view graph neural networks with a multi-attention module. Thorough experiments on ten real-world datasets show that, compared with state-of-the-art methods, MG-TAR reduces the error of predicting the accident risk by up to 23% and improves the accuracy of predicting the most dangerous areas by up to 27%.