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In this paper the results of an experiment comparing the dichotomous choice (DC) contingentvaluation (CV) approach with real purchase decisions for a consumer good are reported. In addition to comparing the standard DC CV approach with real decisions, we also test the hypothesis that a more conservative interpretation of the DC approach, where only absolutely sure yes responses are counted as yes responses, correctly predicts real purchase decisions. The results show that the hypothetical yes responses overestimate the real yes responses and that the hypothetical absolutely sure yes responses underestimate the real yes responses.
Johannesson et al. (Fri,) studied this question.