Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.