A machine learning approach for quantifying crop water stress in smallholder farms using unmanned aerial vehicle multispectral imagery

Water stress significantly threatens sugarcane production, particularly among smallholder farmers in South Africa, where spatially explicit assessments remain limited. This study aimed to improve the quantification of crop water stress by developing a machine learning (ML) model to predict the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), a proxy for vegetation water content. An ML approach was adopted to capture complex, non-linear relationships between structural vegetation indices (SVIs) and NDWI. Sentinel-2 satellite data and UAV-acquired multispectral imagery were integrated, with the model trained using satellite-derived SVIs and NDWI, and then applied to UAV-derived SVIs to predict NDWI. The model achieved high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.95, RMSE = 0.03, MAE = 0.02) and effectively captured temporal variations in sugarcane water status, including post-rainfall stress recovery and increased water retention during early maturation—aligning with changes in leaf area index (LAI), chlorophyll content (CC), and Total Soil Water Profile (TSWP). NDWI also showed a positive correlation with actual evapotranspiration (ET a ; R² = 0.60) and a negative correlation with the Water Deficit Index (WDI; R² = 0.62), suggesting its potential to reflect crop water status under certain conditions. When interpreted in conjunction with in situ measurements of precipitation, TSWP, and WDI, the predicted NDWI provides valuable insights into crop water dynamics. This approach demonstrates the potential of ML-driven NDWI estimation to support site-specific irrigation scheduling, enhance resource use efficiency, and promote sustainable sugarcane cultivation. The findings contribute to climate-resilient water management practices tailored to the needs of smallholder systems in water-scarce regions. • Machine learning predicts multispectral UAV-derived NDWI using Sentinel-2 vegetation indices. • Predicted NDWI aligns with trends in soil water status, evapotranspiration and water deficit dynamics. • NDWI correlates positively with ET a and negatively with WDI, reflecting crop water stress levels. • These relationships capture shifts in crop water dynamics under varying environmental and meteorological conditions. • Model outputs can inform timely, site-specific irrigation strategies in rainfed sugarcane production systems.