Pathologic response rates in HER2-low versus HER2-zero early breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Currently, the primary methods for detecting HER2 expression levels are immunohistochemistry (IHC) and in situ hybridization (ISH), with the traditional standard being a HER2-positive score of 3 + accompanied by ERBB2 gene amplification detected through ISH. However, a new entity has recently emerged: HER2-low, defined as HER2 IHC 1 + or 2 + with negative ISH. HER2-low breast cancer, representing 45–60% of all HER2-negative tumors, has distinct biological characteristics and uncertain responses to conventional HER2-targeted therapies. Recent studies suggest varied clinical outcomes, highlighting the need for further investigation into the impact of HER2-low status on treatment efficacy and prognosis. This meta-analysis evaluates the difference in complete pathological response (pCR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) between HER2-low and HER2-zero phenotypes. We systematically searched the main databases PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for articles evaluating women in neoadjuvant therapy expressing HER2-low and HER2-zero. We computed odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) using DerSimonian and Laird random-effect models for all endpoints, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We assessed the heterogeneity using I 2 statistics. R, version 4.2.3, was used for statistical analyses. 38 studies totaling 70,104 patients were included. The HER2-low group accounted for 61.3% of patients while HR + status represented 52.4% in the whole research. In 67,839 women, the pCR was analyzed, which in the overall cohort analysis favored the HER2-zero group (OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.78–0.90; p = 0.000005; I 2 = 15%). Subgroup analyses for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and HR + patients also favored HER2-zero expression, with an OR of 0.91 (95% CI 0.83–1.0; p < 0.041; I 2 = 12%) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.81; p < 0.000001; I 2 = 0%), respectively. In the multivariate analysis across all patients, both DFS and OS outcomes were significantly favorable for the HER2-low expression group, with HR 0.8317 (95% CI 0.7036–0.9832; p = 0.031) for DFS and HR 0.806 (95% CI 0.663–0.979; p = 0.03) for OS. Based on our findings, HER2-zero status is associated with a significantly higher pathological complete response (pCR) rate compared to HER2-low in early-stage breast cancer, and other survival outcomes. These results suggest that HER2-zero should be considered a prognostic factor in early-stage breast cancer and taken into account in neoadjuvant treatment planning and future clinical research.