Techno-economic assessment of emission reduction pathways for the Australian chicken meat industry

Context Paris Climate Agreement signatories have committed to achieving a maximum increase in global average temperatures of 2°C, requiring their nations to achieve substantial absolute greenhouse-gas (GHG) emission reduction. At the market level, many major companies have established both company and supply-chain emission reduction targets. Aims This study aimed to map technically viable emission reduction pathways for the Australian chicken meat industry, aligning with government and customer targets, and assess implementation costs in absolute and product-level terms. Methods Using 2020 industry benchmarking data, GHG emissions were projected to 2050 under a baseline scenario and three mitigation pathways, including (1) net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050, (2) a Science Based Targets Initiative Forest, Land and Agriculture commodity pathway, and (3) a pathway constrained to technically and economically viable mitigation strategies with realistic adoption rates. A techno-economic assessment quantified abatement potential, net present value (NPV), and marginal abatement costs (MACs) using discounted cash-flow analysis. Key results Under the baseline scenario, Scope 1 and 2 emissions increased by 10% by 2050 relative to 2020, despite a projected 130% increase in production, highlighting the benefits of ongoing genetic improvements and electricity decarbonisation. Pathway 1 achieved net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions through a combination of direct mitigation and carbon removals, at an NPV of −$1.7 billion (2024 AUD). Pathway 2 achieved a 72.8% reduction in product carbon footprint, with an NPV of −$911 million. Pathway 3 achieved a 42% reduction in absolute emissions and a 58% reduction in product carbon footprint by 2050, at the lowest cost (NPV –$448 million). Weighted average MACs ranged from $99/Mg CO2-e (Pathway 1) to $8.6/Mg CO2-e (Pathway 3). Conclusions Substantial emission reductions are technically achievable for the Australian chicken meat industry, particularly on a product-basis. On the basis of current capabilities, achieving established targets will require large-scale removals. Implications Significant investment, innovation, and cost-sharing across the supply chain will be required to bridge the gap between current capabilities and policy expectations. Engagement with key stakeholders is necessary to determine what is realistically achievable in the current environment, recognising the critical goods and service agriculture provides.