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Phytoplankton phenology critically affects elements biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem structure, and productivity. However, our understanding about the phenological process and driving mechanism is still very limited due to the shortage of long-term observation data. We used all available daily MODIS-Aqua data from 2003 to 2017 to determine bloom start dates (BSDs) in a typical trophic lake (Lake Taihu) and investigate how phytoplankton BSDs respond to climate change and environmental factors. The results indicate that BSDs have advanced 29.9 days for the entire Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2017. Spatially, an earlier phytoplankton bloom was recorded in the northern bays and the littoral regions than in the center of open water. Air temperature, wind speed, and N/P ratio (N, total nitrogen; P, total phosphorus) were three important factors affecting phytoplankton phenology. Multiple linear correlation showed that air temperature, wind speed, and N/P ratio in Spring could explain 59.9% variability of BSDs for Lake Taihu. This study provides a quantitative assessment of phytoplankton phenological shifts and elucidates the inter-relationship between phenology parameters and environmental factors, thus improving our understanding on the potential impact of climate change and eutrophication on lake ecosystems. The starting earlier and lasting longer of phytoplankton are consistent with the expected effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystem in recent decades, which will bring new challenges for algal bloom management in eutrophic Lake Taihu.
Shi et al. (Mon,) studied this question.