ELN surfing the wave: Terrorist survival

This paper analyses the factors underlying the historical persistence and contemporary evolution of the National Liberation Army (ELN) in Colombia. Founded in 1964, the ELN remains active six decades later and has strengthened its organisational capabilities, territorial presence, and military capacity, particularly following the demobilisation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People's Army (FARC-EP) in 2017. Its binational presence along the Colombia–Venezuela border has further reinforced its resilience and operational flexibility. Theoretically, the article engages with David Rapoport's waves of terrorism while arguing that the ELN's adaptability, criminal governance, cross-border territorial control, integration with illicit economies, and relations with transnational armed actors exhibit proto-state characteristics that align with emerging debates on a fifth wave of terrorism, particularly those advanced by Honig and Yahel. Empirically, the study draws on anonymised semi-structured interviews with seven officials from Colombia's National Intelligence Directorate and three former Armed Forces officers. Their testimonies provide first-hand evidence of the ELN's organisational adaptation, governance strategies, cross-border dynamics, and interactions with illicit and armed actors, offering an explanation for the organisation's enduring survival and transformation spanning over sixty years.