Transport Connectivity and Trade Integration between Türkiye and the Three Seas Initiative: A Gravity Model Perspective

The primary objective of this study is to empirically examine the main determinants of bilateral trade between Türkiye and the 13 countries within the scope of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) through a gravity model approach. In the research, an annual panel dataset covering the 2004-2024 period was utilized. The impacts of market size and distance-related trade costs were tested via the Augmented Gravity Model. The obtained empirical findings indicate that physical distance is a statistically significant and strong inhibitory factor on trade flows, with a coefficient of -1.251. Furthermore, it is revealed by the analysis results that Türkiye's export performance exhibits a "supply-side" character. Since the elasticities of Türkiye's GDP (0.685) and population (2.414) were found to be higher than the market size effects of the partner countries, it is demonstrated that the primary force driving trade is Türkiye's domestic production capacity and economies of scale rather than external demand. Consequently, active participation in transport infrastructure projects, prioritization of digitalization in border crossings, and the reduction of "economic distance" through the optimization of logistics processes are evaluated as strategic necessities to enhance Türkiye's trade integration with the 3SI geography.