Strategic Forecasting of the Human Development Index of the Russian Federation Based on Demographic Indicators

The article examines recent trends in the Human Development Index (HDI) of the Russian Federation and evaluates its future dynamics based on the analysis of key demographic indicators. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing importance of reliable long-term demographic forecasting under conditions of declining fertility, population ageing, natural population decrease, and evolving family policy. The study aims to assess the impact of demographic factors on HDI dynamics and to develop scenario-based forecasts for the period 2021–2025. The methodological framework combines statistical analysis, trend modeling, comparative analysis, and scenario forecasting. The research investigates net migration, demographic dependency ratio, and net reproduction rate as the principal explanatory variables used for forecasting the Human Development Index under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. The obtained results are compared with the latest official statistics published by the United Nations Development Programme and the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, allowing an assessment of the consistency between projected and actual values. The findings demonstrate that the growth of the Human Development Index in the Russian Federation is more moderate than suggested by some earlier forecasts, while demographic constraints remain one of the principal determinants of long-term socio-economic development. The proposed approach may be applied in demographic forecasting, strategic planning, and the development of public demographic policy.