Shifting Sites of Opportunity: Changes in Neighborhood- and School-Based Poverty Around LIHTC Properties Over Time

Affordable housing programs shape where low-income families can live. Historically, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, the predominant federal supply-side program, has located properties in neighborhoods with higher poverty rates than the average neighborhood. Recent policy changes have focused on mitigating past patterns and developing LIHTC in higher-opportunity areas. However, the classification of neighborhoods as “high opportunity” often relies on static neighborhood indicators. In this article, we examine the extent to which the neighborhoods and schools surrounding LIHTC properties change over time. Evaluating active LIHTC properties placed in service in the US from 1991 to 2009, we find that LIHTC neighborhoods experience more change in poverty rates than those without LIHTC. We also evaluate school contexts as one local feature that shapes opportunity for children and find that school socioeconomic conditions also change over time, but in heterogeneous ways that do not always correspond to neighborhood change. We conclude by discussing implications for policies aimed at siting LIHTC and encourage future research to adopt a dynamic perspective for evaluating the relationship between local context and economic mobility outcomes.