Exodus and vote: Mass emigration and voter turnout in Honduras

Does emigration motivate or discourage political participation in migrant sending countries? While emigration can reduce participation by removing opposition voters and weakening political efficacy, it may also signal widespread grievances and encourage participation among those who remain. This paper examines the immediate political effects of large-scale emigration and argues that emigration alone is insufficient to mobilize participation. Instead, when emigration is visible and perceived as a collective act, it sends a political signal that updates citizens’ beliefs about the status quo. Drawing on a pre-registered survey experiment conducted in Honduras ahead of the 2021 presidential election, I test how framing emigration as either a private decision or a collective act in the form of migrant caravans shapes intentions to vote. Respondents exposed to the caravan framing were five percentage points more likely to report intentions to vote than those in the control group and four percentage points more likely than those exposed to the private decision framing. Using causal mediation analysis, I examine whether these effects operate through nationalized perceptions of migration and politics but find no clear evidence of mediation, which may reflect ceiling and floor effects. These findings highlight the importance of framing in shaping how emigration influences political participation among those who remain.